Climate Change reality

Discussion in 'Political Views' started by ehanes7612, Jun 29, 2017.

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  1. Jan 13, 2018 #541

    ehanes7612

    ehanes7612

    ehanes7612

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    you are not listening to me ...cherry picking words and statements again and contriving my sentences...tired of this
     
  2. Jan 13, 2018 #542

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    Please find out the maximum and minimum temperature in summer and winter in the years 1830 to 1860 in Paris/Texas, in Dawson City/Canada, in the pacific 1000 km north of Tahiti, in the middle of Nowaja Semlja/Siberia, 2 km above the middle of Atlantic and at the south pole with an accuracy of 1° maximum.
    And then tell me how this values can help to calculate the average earth temperature with a precision of 0.2 °C in this 30 years.

    In the summer and in the winter You have at different points on the earth -50°C (-58°F) and +50°C (122°F) at the same time. I hope you can imagine the difficulty to calculate a medium earth temperature by 0.2°C precision.

    You will see very fast, that attempt is nonsense.
    Believe it or leave it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  3. Jan 13, 2018 #543

    emydura

    emydura

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    Of course they don't measure temperature the way you say. That is the daftest thing I have ever read and clearly demonstrates you have no idea what you are talking about.

    Here is how they measure temperature from the past using ice cores. This is an accepted scientific method that would have been peer reviewed. If in your expert opinion you think this method has problems, then you should publish a paper in a peer reviewed scientific journal. Until then, I will believe the scientists who specialise in this field.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-are-past-temperatures/
     
  4. Jan 13, 2018 #544

    Berthold

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    No, Yo need a combination of different measuring points and calculation procedures. In the dessert areas of the earth You don't have ice cores.
    Some problems of estimating the temperature are mentioned here.

    Studying ice cores give You a good overview about glacial periods and interglacial periods at single points on the earth.
    When we had a glacial period in middle Europe with glaciers down to the city of Münster (the place of peace contract for the 30 year war in 1648), which is about 50 km north of my home we had warm periods in other places of the earth.
     
  5. Jan 13, 2018 #545

    emydura

    emydura

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    You don't need ice cores from all over the planet. Go back and read that article closely. The isotopic composition of water molecules gives you an indirect measurement of the earth's overall temperature at the time (not the temperature at that location). The relationship between the isotopic composition and temperature has been found to be almost perfectly linear.


    From the article -

    The water molecules in ice cores are always depleted in the heavier isotopes (that is, the isotopes with the larger number of neutrons) and the difference compared to the standard is expressed as either 18O or D. Both of these values tell essentially the same story--namely, that there is less 18O and D during cold periods than there is in warm. Why is this? Simply put, it takes more energy to evaporate the water molecules containing a heavy isotope from the surface of the ocean, and, as the moist air is transported polewards and cools, the water molecules containing heavier isotopes are preferentially lost in precipitation. Both of these processes, known as fractionation, are temperature dependent.

    At a range of sites in the polar regions scientists have measured a near linear relationship between 18O and D in samples of modern snowfall taken over several years and the mean annual temperature. This relationship can be used to calibrate the isotope ratio thermometer
     
  6. Jan 13, 2018 #546

    Berthold

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    No, that is not possible, because there is no exchange of the water all over the earth, especially not over the land and desert areas.

    But Robert Mulvaney gives a good explanation.
     
  7. Jan 13, 2018 #547

    emydura

    emydura

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    Read the article closely. It will answer a lot of your questions.

    Simply put, it takes more energy to evaporate the water molecules containing a heavy isotope from the surface of the ocean, and, as the moist air is transported polewards and cools, the water molecules containing heavier isotopes are preferentially lost in precipitation.
     
  8. Jan 13, 2018 #548

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    Sorry, I don't see any possibility to calculate the average temperature in Tamanrasset/Sahara or Ayers Rock/Australia by studying an ice core from Greenland or Antarctic.
     
  9. Jan 13, 2018 #549

    ehanes7612

    ehanes7612

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    Deserts aren't just shifting sands that erase all memory of their past..lots of history in them
     
  10. Jan 14, 2018 #550

    emydura

    emydura

    emydura

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    You just don't get it. They are not predicting temperatures for specific areas of the world such as the Sahara or Uluru or even Antartica for that matter. They are predicting the mean annual temperature for the planet at that specific time. They do this by calculating the number of 18o and D isotopes from the ice water molecules. They have been able to demonstrate that there is a very strong linear relationship between the number of 18o and D isotopes in water molecules and the world's mean annual temperature. They have tested this model using real accurate data collected in recent times. Once you have an accurate model, you can use it to predict the earth's mean temperature by counting the number of 18o and D isotopes in frozen water molecules from the past.

    I don't know how you can be questioning a technique you clearly don't understand.
     
  11. Jan 14, 2018 #551

    Stone

    Stone

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    There is no such thing as an accurate model. (not to mention that there are problems with ice core data) You can't predict past or future temperatures using models and the further out you go from the present the further out you are likely to be.
    Here is one reason...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19q1i-wAUpY
    If you are gullible enough to believe anyone can tell you what the temperatures where in the distant past or the distant future using a computer model of a nonlinear chaotic system which probably has many features which no one has yet considered or understands - including for example cloud cover - you are dreaming. It's all speculative and most will be proven wrong in the long run. All you can do is use paleoclimatology and human records to give some idea of what the climate was like.
    Remember too that scientists are not as ''smart'' as you said.

    As an example, the other day I was listening to an interview to a ''scientist'' studying green turtles who mentioned that (as usual) something was wrong.
    Too many females are being hatched compared to males due to higher temperatures/climate change. It never seemed to occur to him that 1* it is a natural adaptation proving it has happened before and 2* that you would think green turtles would be able to survive a little warming considering they have been around several hundreds of millions of years. But no, he said we will need to ''do something'' if it doesn't change soon. (Do I see another 5 year grant on the way?) Climate change research is a gravy train.
    The same can be said about the Reef.
    It is single minded stupidity of amazing proportions! So don't believe everything a ''scientist'' says for no other reason that it is a scientist. They are just people with all the same bias as anyone else.

    As for your stupid Michael Mann-made hockey stick graph, The very idea that mean temperatures have not deviated more than 0.2C in 1000 years is just more made up bullshit. Also the period from 1900 is plain wrong as the un-altered, original GISS graph in post #518 clearly shows. If you still want to remain a denier, go back and check out the recorded temperatures in the US during the dust bowl era. And not just the US, It was repeated in many parts of the world.

    What ever happened to common sense? Being an orchid grower you should understand that plants evolved in a warmer climate that we have at the moment. Do you need proof? The proof is that almost all plants have an ability to do well in average temperatures quite a bit higher than in their native habitats. Why do my Pin Oaks, or my Japanese Maples in my garden still produce viable seed in a much hotter climate and in some cases self sow in situ? Because they evolved in a warmer climate. (co2 was much higher then too by the way) The tolerance for colder temperatures is MUCH lower. Just ask your orchids.

    The global warming scare is short sighted ridiculous nonsense.
     
  12. Jan 14, 2018 #552

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    How will You be able to demonstrate a relationship between number of isotopes and the average world temperature, when You don't know the average world temperature. You cannot develope a model if You don't have the necessary data.

    The basic problem is to calculate the average world temperature.

    Your statement is a logical circulus vitiosus.
     
  13. Jan 14, 2018 #553

    Berthold

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    Yes I know some deserts and crossed Sahara by Landrovers long time ago.
    And I know, if You install Communist system in the desert sand is running short very quickly (see Venezuela right now).
     
  14. Jan 15, 2018 #554

    emydura

    emydura

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    The accuracy of the temperature to the real value isn’t actually that important. Just as long as you are consistent. It is the relative comparison that is important, not the actual values. You don’t even need to convert the number of isotopes to temperature. Just comparing the number of 18o and D isotopes tells you whether it was warmer or cooler in the past. If you have a lower count of 18o and D isotopes in the year 1600 than it was cooler, if you have a higher count it was warmer. The main reason for converting it to a temperature is to put it in a measurement scale we can easily understand. It is just like converting miles to kilometres or Celsius to Fahrenheit. I’m astounded you cannot comprehend any of this.

    Unlike Mike, who doesn’t even pretend to debate science (actually just rails against science and scientists), you can sometimes sound like you know what you are talking about. You could easily sway the uninitiated. But you have clearly been found out here. Your lack of scientific knowledge is there for all to see.
     
  15. Jan 15, 2018 #555

    Berthold

    Berthold

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    Hey, I am certified as doctor of physical chemistry by the RWTH Aachen.
    The ranking of that university is comparable with Caltech in Pasadena and I swear, that I worked out the dissertation by myself.:)
    What is Your skill?

    Do You have good universities in Australia?
     
  16. Jan 16, 2018 #556

    Stone

    Stone

    Stone

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    We used to. Now they are ideologically driven.
     
  17. Jan 16, 2018 #557

    Stone

    Stone

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    Why would I debate science? That's not my job and I'm not a scientist. You don't need to be a scientist to smell ****. I base my notions entirely on observations made in the real world.

    Actually I have nothing against scientists or science. I just hate the speculative science coming out of the climate change church.

    For example, your dead mangroves.

    What Dr Duke said...

    What the NT archives say.......2014

    Climate science if chock full of this kind of bullshit. The trouble with you is your non-questioning, swallow it all state of mind.
     
  18. Jan 16, 2018 #558

    ehanes7612

    ehanes7612

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    Mike, if there is one thing that is obvious is that you hate anyone who advocates man made climate change.. I don’t understand the lengths you go to persist that climate change is a fallacy.. but I do realize that this is one component of the reality of climate change.. I don’t see you changing anyone’s minds... one person after another challenges you and they just give up on you .. so this thread is more to just your personality being exposed.... I just don’t know how many variations you have to find on calling bullshit before you realize that you are just knocking your head against the wall. This thread has gone on way too long... all it is now is just an ego bashing with no relevant sharing of information. I would implore people not feed anymore into it
     
  19. Jan 16, 2018 #559

    Stone

    Stone

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    Whether this thread ends due to your appeal or not, the debate will continue, and if not here, elsewhere. So stopping it is neither here nor there.
    The reason I feel the need to jump on what I consider speculative nonsense is the hundreds of millions of dollars spent each year in a totally futile effort to change the climate and feed the egos of researchers. As you probably are aware, there are countless areas where the funds could be more wisely spent. I don't need to name them. The outrageous waste of money needs to stop.
    If you see it as obvious that I ''hate'' any one who advocates AGW, I'm afraid you are not reading things accurately. It is the idea that I hate and the gullibility of the popular media and the suppression of anyone with alternate views that I hate. Our own national public broadcaster is one such entity. I know there are many in the US as well. That is what I hate. Censorship and/or ridicule and/or funding cuts to anyone on the ''wrong team''.

    There have been over 400 papers this year (if I remember correctly) with opposing views. Have you heard of them? Do you see them in the New York Times?
     
  20. Jan 16, 2018 #560

    ehanes7612

    ehanes7612

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    right..but the dialogue here is not adding anything or anyone new..it's no longer a debate (if it ever was) but a pissing contest (funny, because I started this thread to be a mockery of the debate ..to lighten the mood over the passions on both sides)...and I dont see how using slippertalk is an effective way of advancing policy changes...you know how stubborn people are on this forum, and probably how few there are left reading this particular thread
     

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